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dc.contributor.authorLøhre, Erik
dc.contributor.authorJuanchich, Marie
dc.contributor.authorSirota, Miroslav
dc.contributor.authorTeigen, Karl Halvor
dc.contributor.authorShepherd, Theodore G.
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-04T13:02:47Z
dc.date.available2020-11-04T13:02:47Z
dc.date.created2019-05-20T21:15:58Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.identifier.citationWeather, Climate, and Society. 2019, 11 (3), 565-575.en_US
dc.identifier.issn1948-8327
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/2686405
dc.description© 2019 American Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.description.abstractThe use of interval forecasts allows climate scientists to issue predictions with high levels of certainty even for areas fraught with uncertainty, since wide intervals are objectively more likely to capture the truth than narrow intervals. However, wide intervals are also less informative about what the outcome will be than narrow intervals, implying a lack of knowledge or subjective uncertainty in the forecaster. In six experiments, we investigate how laypeople perceive the (un)certainty associated with wide and narrow interval forecasts, and find that the preference for accuracy (seeing wide intervals as ‘‘objectively’’ certain) versus informativeness (seeing wide intervals as indicating ‘‘subjective’’ uncertainty) is influenced by contextual cues (e.g., question formulation). Most important, we find that people more commonly and intuitively associate wide intervals with uncertainty than with certainty. Our research thus challenges the wisdom of using wide intervals to construct statements of high certainty in climate change reports.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.subjectSocial scienceen_US
dc.subjectClimate predictionen_US
dc.subjectForecastingen_US
dc.subjectCommunications/decision makingen_US
dc.subjectRisk assessmenten_US
dc.titleClimate scientists' wide prediction intervals may be more likely but are perceived to be less certainen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.source.pagenumber565-575en_US
dc.source.volume11en_US
dc.source.journalWeather, Climate, and Societyen_US
dc.source.issue3en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0136.1
dc.identifier.cristin1698960
cristin.unitcode209,6,2,0
cristin.unitnameInstitutt for psykologi
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode1


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