Effects of strong and weak non-pharmaceutical interventions on stock market returns: A comparative analysis of Norway and Sweden during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the behaviour of stock market returns in Norway and Sweden during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. We test how the different government interventions chosen in Norway and Sweden, including restrictions such as school closures and travel prohibitions along with economic support, affected equity markets in both countries. Our dataset comprises a panel of data for Norway and Sweden over 221 trading days during the period 1 January to 5 November 2020. The result show that while non-pharmaceutical interventions had few or no effects on Norwegian stock market returns, they positively affected the stock market in Sweden, although the strength of this effect weakened with the increasing number of confirmed COVID-19 cases.