How future climate and tree distribution changes shape the biodiversity of macrofungi across Europe

Abstract

Aim: Climate change is affecting biodiversity at an accelerating rate. Despite the im-portance of fungi in ecosystems in general, and in the global carbon and nitrogen cycle in particular, there is little research on the response of fungi to climate change compared with plants and animals. Earlier studies show that climatic factors and tree species are key determinants of macrofungal diversity and distribution at large spatial scales. However, our knowledge of how climate change will affect macrofungal diver-sity and distribution in the future remains poorly understood.Location: Europe.Methods: Using openly available occurrence data of 1845 macrofungal species from eight European countries (i.e. Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, France and Spain), we built ensemble species distribution models to predict macrofungal response to climate change alone and combined climate and tree distri-bution change under the IPCC special report on 2080 emissions scenarios (SRES A2 and B2).Results: Considering climate change alone, we predict that about 77% (74.1%–80.7%) of the modelled species will expand their distribution range, and around 57% (56.1%– 58.4%) of the modelled area will have an increase in macrofungal species richness. However, when considering the combined climate and tree species distribution change, only 50% (50%–50.9%) of the species are predicted to expand their distribu-tion range and 49% (47.4%–51.1%) of the modelled area will experience an increase in macrofungal species richness.Main Conclusions: Overall, our models projected that large areas would exhibit in-creased macrofungal species richness under future climate change. However, tree species distribution might play a restrictive role in the future distributional shifts of macrofungi. In addition, macrofungal responses appear heterogeneous, varying among species and regions. Our findings highlight the importance of including tree species in the projection of climate change impacts on the macrofungal diversity and distribution on a continental scale.